McCain Leads in Average of Polls Using "Likely Voters"
By brkcmo Posted in 2008 — Comments (4) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Source: http://electoralprojection.blogspot.com/2008/05/2008-presidential-electo...
Here is where you can find an interesting chart that breaks down a 50-Day average of National Polls according to whether the poll used "Likely Voters", "Registered Voters", or simply "Adults." As you see, McCain leads in polls of "Likely Voters", but trails in the other types of polls.
LV POlls - McCain 46.7% Obama 45.1%
RV Polls - Obama 46.4% McCain 43.5%
A Polls - Obama 49% McCain 44%
This site also has electoral map information showing McCain leading Obama right now 249-237 with 52 in the tossup category. Many of the liberal media polls use RV or just random samples of "adults", which seems to skew the poll in Obama's favor. This would be interesting to follow in the months ahead.
but seeing as popular vote means squat, I would focus on the state-by-state polling being done.
Now also found at The Minority Report
n/t
"but there's something kind of "Muslim-y" about him. I know there's no proof or anything, but I take his denials with a big 'ole grain of seasalt."...crabcakes
The MSM loves to do this. That is why you should never accept a poll without knowing who it polls - if it isn't at least LVs, and if it doesn't have a roughly proportional R, D, and I sample size vis a vi the population at large, then just ignore it. (It also needs to have at least 300 voters.) And always ignore the CBS/NYTs polls, since they are just plain biased.
BTW, I suspect that the Washington Post poll, of "Adults" was put out simply to give the Obama campaign something to crow about - see their WV spin memo. Otherwise, there is absolutely no point in conducting this kind of poll of adults.
It freaks out the pollsters.
"husky will coach you"....Reggie