Why a Weak Russia Fears Ukraine - And What It All Means (Updated)
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I've been non-shy about staking out what seems to be a minority position in these pages - that Russia is not re-emerging as a strong power in the guise of the old Soviet Union, but is in fact a noisy but weak state that can't even enforce its will upon anyone other than tiny, weak, impoverished Moldova. Along those lines, I've cited Russia's disastrous demographic problems, and also its total inability to enforce its will upon what is supposed to be its close fraternal cousin Ukraine.
There's a jaw-dropping column in tomorrow's Moscow Times (of all places) that re-evaluates the whole Russia situation, and reaches many of the conclusions that your humble correspondent has been stating for some time. It's a great read, so please make some time to follow the link and read the whole thing. (Full disclosure: Your humble correspondent did NOT write this piece under another pen name.... :-) )
If Vlad Putin thinks that he can play off various Islamists against the "West," he should think again - because he has more vulnerability:
But in the eyes of most Islamic extremists, Russia is part of that same "Satanic" West -- indeed, its most vulnerable part. Therefore, it is Russia, with the soaring birth rate among its Muslim citizens, that is the most attractive country for expansion and takeover.
....
Indeed, the weakened Russia that will be Putin's legacy will then also lose the Northern Caucasus and the Volga region to their growing Muslim populations.
This is an ugly fact of life in contemporary Russia. Slavic Russians are disappearing at a frightening rate, and the only demographic gains are being registered by Russia's Muslim population. How's that for a prize for the jihad?
Meanwhile, Putin's biggest emotional headache remains the independent path being taken by "Little Russia" - the cultural junior cousin, Ukraine:
This, however, will depend on Ukraine's success on the path of European development it chose in the Orange Revolution of 2004 and 2005.
Ukraine does present a threat, but not to Russia's security, as Kremlin propagandists claim. The real threat is to the Putin model of a corporate, authoritarian state, unfriendly to the West. For the Kremlin it is a matter of life and death that countries that were once part of the Soviet Union but chose a different model of development -- Ukraine being the chief example -- should never become attractive to ordinary Russians.
....
Ukraine's success will mark the political death of Putinism -- the squalid and bankrupt philosophy of "KGB capitalists."
I've said it before and I'll say it again - Ukraine is the most interesting country in Europe right now, because it is the linchpin of what is going to be happening on the continent over the next 100 years. Putin's Russia is just too weak to enforce its will upon Ukraine, and Ukraine doesn't want to have Russia enforce its will. As was made clear during President Bush's April visit and at the April NATO summit in Bucharest, Ukraine wants to be in the free society camp, not back under yet another iteration of the Tsarist Empire. (Memo to Senator Schumer: Your column last month suggesting that we force Ukraine back into being a Russian client state in exchange for Russian diplomatic help on Iran was one of the most disgusting things on record. It has made you universally reviled across ALL of eastern Europe. Don't go there.)
And what of Putin's Russia and China?
If the Kremlin's anti-Western paranoia continues and its Eurasian fantasy of allying with China lasts another 10 to 15 years, Russia will end up seeing China swallowing its Far East and Siberia.
This idea has been floating around for some time, but I have to disagree with it. While Russia's demographic problems are now acknowledged (even in Russia), China's demographic problems are about to hit the fan in a big way - and it won't be pretty. Basically, the one-child policy has worked too well and for too long. China goes off a demographic cliff c. 2015 (not that far off!), and won't have the manpower to move into that void. Siberia is a vast amount of Lebensraum with no one to Leben into the Raum.
I'll close by re-mentioning one of my "off-the-wall, sleeper" issues for the 21st century. As Russia and China collapse demographically, resource-rich Siberia will sit there empty and inviting.
The Britain-dwelling Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich has actually begun pulling together resources (including boring machines) for a proposed tunnel under the Chukchi Sea to connect Alaska with Russian Siberia. Maybe he works for us and is a great visionary....
UPDATE
From the comments section and also from the "contact form" route, it's very apparent that the demographic situation of China has stirred up a great deal of interest in this discussion - again, likely because it seems to go against the grain of what we're being told about China as this inevitably emerging superpower of the 21st century.
I brought in China in my original piece last evening because one thing I wasn't buying into from the original citation (to The Moscow Times piece) was the notion that as Russia depopulated and Siberia emptied, China would just naturally expand into the void - because China is facing its own demographic problems. I quoted "c. 2015" just from having seen it floating around in a few places, but given the interest, here's a little more.
If you just go to our non-favorite search engine and toss in the words
china demographics 2015
you'll get enough to keep you busy. I'll just cite two that came up on the first page, since they seem to summarize things nicely.
The first I'll cite was published in March 2007 - ironically, in China's English language Xinhua service:
China's 'demographic dividend' to end in 2010
I'll let y'all go link and read the associated piece, but I had to cringe when I read that phrase "demographic dividend" (which is new to me), since this is something that was clearly going on in western Europe and has already reached a similar point. Basically, the notion is simple - when the birth rate falls precipitously, for a few decades this is a good thing - there are fewer children, and children are not productive.... and also boost divisor to "GDP per capita" but not the numerator. So, for a while this boosts prosperity - but eventually you get to the flip side, where you have a large unproductive elderly population and a very small productive younger population - and you're in very big trouble.
In the business world, this is known as "underinvest and milk assets." This can make you look good - for awhile. As an overall strategy it's a business disaster - unless you apply it to some facility that you're "sunsetting" and just want to let run out until it becomes unprofitable and is closed. That's essentially the tipping-point that Europe has gone past, and that's the one that is soon to face China.
The second I'll cite actually dates back to November 2005, but it has a lot more detail on this looming problem.
China's demographic challenges
....
One reason for China’s stellar growth is that it is at a demographic sweet-spot. The massive reduction in infant mortality achieved by China’s barefoot doctors in the 1960s and 1970s is now yielding a surge of young workers – an extra 10m working-age adults per year. China’s challenge now is just to absorb them into the labour force. Add to that the massive population flow from the countryside and you can see why wages are low and growth is so fast. There are few pensioners and there are not many children either. The rabbit is indeed in the middle of the python.
As early as 2015, China’s working age population will actually start falling.
(Emphasis mine.)
There's the "2015" marker. There's also another search hit that came up that projected that China will cross the line of having more pensioners than workers at about the same time.
The exact details of course are murky, so an exact quantitative analysis is not possible. But the qualitative trends are quite clear. China has imposed on itself a demographic regime that Europe adopted voluntarily - and has done so in a much shorter time. The notion for the original topic of this entry is contained in that - that China's looming demographic problems make it very unlikely that there will be a Chinese population available to expand into an emptying Siberia.
Other consequences of this little-acknowledged Chinese demographic situation could be discussed - such as how much of China's recent economic growth is actually a non-sustainable (!!) mirage that is due only to a demographic situation that is about to reverse itself badly.
I understand they want to grow their economy, but to what end...and within their "control" where is their gain? Where
will they end/start?? I have never experienced their culture,
however, their phenomenol growth has to be creating a
multitude of problems/containment they never anticipated. Why
are they allowing these changes to happen??
Your comment about Schumer is a good reminder that many of our Democratic Congress critters who like to complain about U.S. unilateralism have no qualms about trying to overthrow duly elected governments for their own perverted purposes.
So this is Hope and Change - actively abetting the establishment of a new Soviet Empire?
Or is a free Ukraine too threatening to the socialist paradise that they want to establish here in the U.S.?
Is India. Demographically, it is in good shape, and will soon surpass China. It is rich with natural resources, has a decent strategic position, and the Himalayas form a natural land barrier that would make any land assault from China or elsewhere very difficult.
If they continue with effective economic reforms(which seems to be in question) India may well be the world's greatest power at some point in the future.
Regardless of China's aging population, they still have plenty of people to populate Siberia if they wanted to. Still, what Chinese family would want to move to Siberia? Would China really try to conquer a large piece of Russia? That would be the most significant single conflict since World War II.
I agree with your thesis overall though. I don't think Russia is particularly powerful. It is simply no longer pathetically weak.
Basically, the one-child policy has worked too well and for too long. China goes off a demographic cliff c. 2015 (not that far off!), and won't have the manpower to move into that void. Siberia is a vast amount of Lebensraum with no one to Leben into the Raum.
If we accept the CW that the Chinese have been preferring boys to girls, then there is a way out of the demographic problem - one that actually triggers rather than abates the Siberian takeover.
China will have a vast surplus of men who, so long as they live in the underdeveloped north of the country, will have few prospects and no women. Russia's demographics have already gone south, but the worst hit are the men, whose life expectancy has dropped below 60. Russia has, and will continue to have, a surplus of women.
When the Chinese come over the border, they will be seeking mineral wealth, jobs, and wives.
When all else fails, simply revel in the absurdity of it all.
Actually, that thesis has been kicking around for some time. But I came to the same conclusion on this one (independently) as did Mark Steyn, that it just doesn't make any sense for two reasons.
First, the anti-phase demographic imbalances in Russia and China look a lot different when you get below the large-scale numbers. The Chinese demographic imbalance has been caused by the one-child policy, and the consequent intentional gender selection (via abortion) has created an absurd imbalance in favor of an oversupply of young men (in their 20s and maybe early 30s). The Russian demographic imbalance has been caused by the precipitous drop in the life expectancy of Russian men (to about 57), while things aren't nearly as bad among women (still into the mid-70s); this has caused an oversupply of older women (the oversupply basically being concentrated in the 57-and-up age groups). Putting together an oversupply of men in their 20s with an oversupply of women in their 60s? That's not likely going to do very much, and obviously that's not a female population that is going to be producing children.
Second, China's demographic problems are NOT just confined to the male/female imbalance. Regardless of gender outcomes, China (via one-child) forced upon itself a birthrate that has always been catastrophic in any society upon which that fell. Russia has the same problem, and is already imploding demographically, while China is poised to do the same thing. There simply won't be a sufficient Chinese population to even keep China populated - let alone to expand into Siberia.
I've long agreed with the comment made above that China is an over-hyped Potemkin village, and India is a much better bet. Besides much healthier demographics, India also has notions of British law and things like intellectual property protection that continue (despite recent blather) to still be badly lacking in China.
Given that there still is a very strong central government in China and the people still, by and large, do what they are told, the Chinese authorities could simply say "go out an multiply".
By changing policy to allow families 3 children, but only one son, in less than 20 years, they could ensure a growing population. Not only would there be sufficient women for the men being born (1 boy and 1 girl) but also wives for the unmarried older men, who can father children well into their 70s. The policy is supported by financially rewarding those who produce girls and shaming/taxing those who do not. Every family gets their son and excess girls can be placed for adoption with families less productive.
China could turn this on a dime were it to so choose (and have their older men literally smacking their lips in anticipation of the surge of teenage brides.)
This to me is far more likely than an invasion of Siberia or even an implosion in China.
The greatest single cause of Atheism today is Christians who profess Jesus with their lips & then go and deny him by their lifestyle. That's what an unbelieving world simply finds..unbelievable -Brennan Manning
to eliminate an over-supply of young males. Before it actually happened, I would never have accepted that the USSR would go with a whimper rather than a bang, and I sure wouldn't bet on it happening twice.
In Vino Veritas
I have to agree with the poster that said the dynamics of the region look like those of the late 1800s.
Last time china had resources that others wanted. This time Russia has resources. This time both sides have nukes. It will be interesting and if it isn't handled delicately many people are going to die.
Or, more accurately, Ren Min Bi. You're sitting on the precedent;)
I guess it depends on whether China wants to start a nuclear exchange with Russia after Russia bombs out the Chinese army's supply lines. But you're right, that is a historical solution to an excess of young men.
However, I think it more likely that China will employ a different historical solution, which is has already initiated, in fact. Specifically, I would expect China to conatinue and expand upon its abductions of young women from neighboring countries - either by force or by purchase. Slave daughters-in-law is a much easier policy to sell to the parents of your male youth than turning them into hamburger...
I am reminded of Czech Pres. Vaclav Klaus recently interviewed about how much is Putin like Brezhnev and Soviet leadership. His answer was along your lines that while he moves opposite to western liberty for Russians he is not the same strong arm communist the Soviets were.
Extreme taxation, excessive controls, oppressive government competition with business … frustrated minorities and forgotten Americans are not the products of free enterprise.Ronald Reagan
You've reminded me to re-subscribe to Policy Review.
This is the sort of forward thinking vs. backward thinking which played to our advantage, ultimately, in winning the cold war. It's too bad Yeltsin's Russia, for all its faults, had to become Putin's.
A third revolution?
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Facinating. I always enjoy your dispatches from "New" Europe.
So, if both Russia AND China can't populate Siberia, who gets it? Mongolia or Canada? Kazakhstan perhaps....Mongolia really should be positioning to take advantage in ten years.......
"Any love letter is incomplete without a Ronald Reagan quote"
--my sophomore year roommate
I posted this link over at Neil's "Mercosur" blog. It takes a "Cowboy" W to respect the horsemen:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/10/20071022-3.html
Canada is much more likely to slip into the nothingness to be replaced by the U.S. and/or Mexico than it is to take over Siberia.
Canada?! Ha, that's the best laugh I've had in ages!
Heh. Hey, it's the next closest place. Geography ain't my fault.
"Any love letter is incomplete without a Ronald Reagan quote"
--my sophomore year roommate
As an aside, haven't many economists now rejected the theory that an expanding population is necessary for economic growth?
Napoleon tried it, and failed miserably. Hitler tried it, and failed miserably. Although China would be coming from the other way, it still wouldn't work due to the fact that there is simply way too much land for them to move over, and not enough time for them to move over it before the Siberian winter sets in.
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The Mongols did rather well with it, if I recall......
"Any love letter is incomplete without a Ronald Reagan quote"
--my sophomore year roommate
the Mongols came through Central Asia.
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Same geography, only slightly more north. My point stands.
"Any love letter is incomplete without a Ronald Reagan quote"
--my sophomore year roommate
Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think China has nearly the 3,000 nukes that Russia retains.
It's really a moot point because these emerging powers are only becoming more interdependent with each other and with us. China's already buying American coal and their economy is much more export-driven than they like to let on. China and India both need central Asian and Russian oil, too.
And if Chinese men are allowed to move to Russia and can find women there who like them, they'll get roughly $10,000 per child from the state. That's how serious Russia is about repopulation. In fact, I have a friend in Siberia who decided she didn't want to wait any longer and went and got pregnant by the first opportunist available. It's a lot like that Gloucester High School pregnancy pact in the news lately.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
which you can expect to be a boom town for decades to come because that's where the major oil terminal upgrade is happening, from which the tankers can just sail around Scandinavia and be in New York much sooner and cheaper than anyone hauling from the Persian Gulf or Nigeria.
I know some ladies in Novosibirsk who are pretty much on topic with us here. It's not the only place.
It's a big country. Siberia itself is a very large and diverse region. Tremendous human resources throughout the Slavic world, actually, and I think odds are high I might get someone from one of the Slavic nations or from Romania (which isn't Slavic but whose women are awesome all the same). A man could find himself with hard choices in that department, which would be a great problem to have.
I knew someone would think of that but I figured I dilute my words too much already.
hard choice. No choices. Only one rooster guards my henhouse. No television on. No pictures of males on the wall.
Its all about THE gamecock. No others for the whole 90 seconds.
Got the mug frosted for the Ultra and the gold and mild ready for zippo treatment?
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race." - The Chief Justice
the avenues by which I know some of my foreign friends. I'd be misunderstood at best.
Johnny Carson.
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race." - The Chief Justice
Extreme taxation, excessive controls, oppressive government competition with business … frustrated minorities and forgotten Americans are not the products of free enterprise.Ronald Reagan
"...your conscience will be mine..."
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
As much as I love "Kings of the Wild Frontier" and "Friend of Foe," Captain Sensible still gets a laugh at Adam's expense:
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Even if Russia did have to use it's nukes against China, what can we assume about such usage?
1) The Russians will probably target the big population centers, such as Beijing and Shanghai
2) The Chinese will probably retaliate back by targeting Russia's population centers, such as St. Petersburg and Moscow
What would be the end-game of all this?
1) China would lose a lot of people
2) Russia would lose a lot of people
3) While the Russians would probably have killed more people in terms of numbers, the Chinese would come out the winner because they killed more people with regards to the percentage of the population that was killed.
But as you said, the point of this moot due to the fact that that region is becoming more and more interdependent on each other; with one small exception: North Korea. If North Korea ever got a nuclear bomb, the whole region could become destabilized. As we witnessed a little while back, Japan sought to rearm after North Korea got a nuke. What effect would a rearmed Japan have? I'm not a foreign policy expert, but I personally think that everyone in that region would start getting a tad bit antsier, and given that regions prominence in today's global economy, that could get everyone a tad bit antsier towards each other, and well, we all know where that leads.
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Because they carefully store all of their plutonium from power production and already have orbital (and even interplanetary) space travel capability, if they ever decided to start a nuclear weapons program then they could have the capability to land a warhead anywhere in the world within 2 years. Mentioning that gets China's attention every time.
North Korea is to China as Roger Clinton always was to Bill Clinton, someone they're sick of cleaning up after but are ultimately most responsible for. China's big worry about North Korean upheaval is the immediate appearance of millions of refugees on their side of the border.
Or accidentally shipping missile parts to Taiwan.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
...I really can't say that I blame the latter.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
that Japan already has nuclear missiles. We know that they have space travel (aka ballistic missile) and that they already have civilian nuclear power. Add 2 and 2, throw in a few modified detonators from the construction industry, and voila, you have yourself a nuclear bomb.
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... but I suspect Japan could build them quickly.
And I don't mean years.
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race." - The Chief Justice
I hope it's not bad form to embed the same video twice in 2 or 3 days but I searched hard for my previous comment and could not find it. Anyways, maybe it's worth an encore:
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race." - The Chief Justice
Extreme taxation, excessive controls, oppressive government competition with business … frustrated minorities and forgotten Americans are not the products of free enterprise.Ronald Reagan
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race." - The Chief Justice
are 4 miles from the legal fireworks S.C. border.
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race." - The Chief Justice
here's something to wish you a good night:
If so, you're not much of a friend. I stayed up to the wee hours watching the whole film via YouTube and then reading various online reviewers slam it.
Actually, the film did contain the germ of a reasonable plot line, if they had developed the relationships between Yor and the three women who desired him carnally. Instead they suddenly turned the film into a Star Wars parody on the cheap.
Now if this explosion had gone off BEFORE the heroes escaped, at least the film makers would have done their fictional world a favor, which would have gained the director a few points in my book. As it is, the film ended with these mass murderers on a mission to save the world.
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Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race." - The Chief Justice
Estonian babe is who you really want to know intimately.
Extreme taxation, excessive controls, oppressive government competition with business … frustrated minorities and forgotten Americans are not the products of free enterprise.Ronald Reagan
or well-developed mammary glands near Taxi co-star's ethnic homes
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer columns
www.theminorityreportblog.com
"The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race." - The Chief Justice
God I loved writing that. The entire Russia China land war scenario is still very interesting. China is a power on an upswing and is facing several crises. They have a demographic crisis of a shortage of eligible women. A resource crises brought on by expanding industrialization.
Further they are trying to make their bones as a world power. Kind of reminds you of Japan in 1894. The 21st century Russia more and more reminds of the 19th century. A once world class military now decidedly second rate. Sparsely populated and ruled by an oppressive oligarchy.
So yes I could see China attempting siberia if an ineffectual Russian ruler emerged. ( Think Russia electing Obama). They would invade to seize resources and incidentally solve their demographic imbalance.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777