Redstate

By theoneandonlyfinn Posted in 2008 — Comments (11) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

First the projections, and then...what EXACTLY are the swing states?

SCENERIO ONE- McCAIN V OBAMA

SCENERIO TWO- McCAIN V CLINTON

Susquehanna released its latest PA poll, on the heels of Quinnipiac's, reinforcing the state now as lean-Democratic (avg lead Obama +2.4)...Rasmussen's latest data out of Wisconsin and Michigan have flipped both to McCain against Obama...this despite national data giving Barack a 4pt lead in the popular vote.
Barring someone spotting "666" on Obama's forehead, Clinton is basically toast. This will, unless something shifts dramatically, be my last projection of McCain-Clinton.

Polls shift and often send out some rather ridiculous information- take Marist's poll out of New York which gave McCAIN a 2 pt lead there, or the Selzter poll out of Indiana that showed Obama winning it in the general. However, over five months of tracking the polls, we have some certainty for November: Obama has managed to lock up Oregon, Washington, Iowa, New Jersey, Minnesota, Delaware, California, Hawaii, DC, Illinois, New York, Maryland, and all of New England minus New Hampshire...and McCain has locked up the Dakotas, Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kentucky, West Virginia, Texas and the entire South.

That leaves us with just eight states:
New Mexico- a state as undecided as a pretentious tweeny @ Starbucks for the very first time- it went to Gore by 531 votes, Bush by a few thousand, and took the longest to decide who exactly they wanted in the Democratic primary. Obama has run strong here in some polls, but so has McCain. Currently McCain +5

Neighboring Colorado is similar, though slightly trending for Obama. This state has been shifting blue in recent years, and will likely go Dem for its choice for Senator this year. However, McCains appeal to independents and Hispanics keeps the polling here incredibly close- it is currently Obama +.9

Nevada- not thought of as one, but a rather excellent bellweather state, it was one of the last to get called in both the 2000 and 2004 elections, as the Clark County population has exploded, this traditionally conservative state has been shifting blue much like Colorado. But as is the case with the already mentioned West states, McCain's cross-party appeal can curb much of Obamas new-voter momentum in the state. Currently running McCain +5

Wisconsin, the closest state in 2004, has been an incredibly narrow victory spot for Democrats in the last two election cycles. Early on in the year, Obama was winning over a dominating independent/collegecrowd vote here, but his lead has melted into a slight McCain lead. Expect this state to change no less than a dozen times between now and election day. Currently running McCain +.2

Michigan, one of two states to bump up its primary and get snubbed by the DNC as a result, is one of the few spots where Republicans can exploit disatisfaction with the Democrats...particularly in its neverending recession (lasting since the 90s economic boom). Polling here has also been incredibly close...Obama had been leading the polling average in the first few months by about .5 pts, that honor has now gone to McCain by the same margin.

Pennsylvania. One of the Big Three in 2004, it barely went to Kerry in 04 by two points. Best described by Carville as "Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Kentucky in between", it is home to a huge proportion of the so-called "Reagan Democrats" who snubbed Obama in the Democratic primary. Still, high Democratic turnout in the principle cities could keep it blue despite these blue collar voters coming to McCain. Currently running Obama +2.4

New Hampshire. Red in 2000. Blue in 2004. Its high percentage of independent voters will be the focus of either candidates efforts here. At the height of Obamamania, it was trending a few points in Obamas favor, yet since about early March,John McCain has overtaken Obamas early popularity. Currently running McCain +6.

Ohio. I was actually tempted not to list it, and my reasoning may surprise some. McCain has been trending about 2-5 pts ahead of Obama here since right after the Ohio primary. In a state where one in six are on food stamps, and much wrath was directed at Republicans in 2006, Obama not only failed to win the primary (blue collar voters, as in PA, soundly rejected him here) but has failed in all but ONE poll to retake a lead here (and that one, the March Q poll, was by a single point). Still, McCains current margin of 2.4 isnt exactly bulletproof come November, so in with the other swingers it goes.