Are We Getting Our Money’s Worth for What We Spend on Healthcare?

Wasteful spending, and not just by the government

By blackhedd Posted in | | Comments (26) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

This is a story about how difficult it is to measure economic output in ways that are actually useful, both from a policy perspective and for understanding the real economy.

In raw numbers, the US economy has been growing consistently since the 2001 recession, but it doesn’t seem that way if you look at evidence like the stock market’s performance, and the decline in consumer balance sheets. And if you look at the political mood of the country as expressed in opinion polling, forget about it.

So why does economic growth feel so much like malaise?

Part of the answer may lie in the mix of things we choose to produce. Specifically, healthcare.

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Apart from government itself, healthcare is perhaps the largest industry in the economy that does not benefit from free markets. (The energy business may come close, but I think healthcare overall is bigger. Agricultural production is also not a free-market industry, but its size relative to the whole economy is minuscule.)

And healthcare spending is largely driven by legal entitlements, which are subject to neither political nor economic discipline. And the way we finance healthcare spending is also very strange, because it enshrines the notion of a third-party payer. This completely disconnects the value of healthcare outcomes from the value of the resources used to fund them. (In other words, the pricing signals are obscured.)

But most people consider healthcare to be a basic human right, subject to two remarkable and uneconomic constraints: first, no one should be denied healthcare; and second, no one should receive better care than anyone else.

Now a moment’s thought will make clear to anyone that these two conditions, taken together, will produce tension that can only be resolved politically. Either we hold everyone in the country to a relatively low level of healthcare quality, or we allow the level of healthcare to rise and let it rapidly increase its share of the total economy.

Some countries (like Britain and Canada) go for full equality of outcomes, and they control overall costs through strict rulemaking. Other countries (like France and the US) accept some inequality of outcomes in return for a more rational mix of costs and benefits.

If we were to actually free the markets for both healthcare and health insurance, the tension would be resolved economically rather than politically. When left to make their own decisions, people will almost magically behave in ways that optimize the benefit they get from the money they spend. They make tradeoffs that they can take responsibility for.

But free markets in healthcare and health insurance are now politically unacceptable because they will eliminate the two principles of universal access and equal outcomes. Rather, the nation’s political mood is turning in the opposite direction.

My reading of the healthcare discussion in America is that the problem of insurance-unavailability is entirely real and in urgent need of a solution. But I also believe that those who want to formalize and extend the government’s control of the industry do not accept that there is an economic tradeoff.

In short, many people believe that it’s indeed possible to simultaneously provide universal access, equal outcomes at a very high quality level, and acceptable costs. It isn’t. You can have no more than two out of the three at the same time.

In addition, the non-market dynamics that underlie the healthcare industry itself have produced some major economic distortions. Most industries invest heavily in technology and process-improvements as a way of cutting costs and increasing productivity.

But in healthcare, your decision-making isn’t controlled by the patient's perception of the value that you have delivered. It’s controlled by what your lobbyists can convince Medicare to pay for.

And this has led to very large increases in spending that may not be delivering real value. Combined with the demographic shifts now at work, this problem will keep getting worse.

Obviously among the distortions here is the fee-for-service payment mechanism. Of course government and quasi-government payers (like HMOs and the Blues) will control costs in the only way they know how: by making and enforcing strict rules. They can’t make economic decisions the way normal people do, by matching outlay to value. So doctors, being rational, will order any number of needless procedures to increase their revenue to reasonable levels.

And companies like General Electric will build and sell extremely expensive imaging technology that is of course valuable therapeutically, but may not really be as valuable in increasing actual health benefits as GE wants you to believe. Health practitioners have no incentive to cut down on their use of imaging technology either, because they make a fee every time they take an MRI to confirm a diagnosis that’s already probably pretty clear.

Something similar applies to expensive and seriously-overprescribed drugs like proton-pump inhibitors and others.

The funny and perverse thing is that all of this badly-incentivized activity shows up both in GDP and in productivity measurements. It’s part of America’s economic growth story.

And that’s a problem, because it may be that we’re getting significantly less actual economic utility and material well-being from our healthcare spending than the raw numbers would suggest.

Luxury-goods marketers know about a phenomenon called the “S-curve.” Above a certain price, high-end consumers will willingly spend twice as much money, or even ten times as much, to get a gold wristwatch or luxury condominium that is nowhere near twice or ten times as good as a less-expensive product.

That’s how we’re buying healthcare in this country. It’s a lot like what will happen if Barack Obama becomes President and starts us off on a binge of Federal spending for so-called “critical infrastructure rebuilding.” We could certainly use better bridges, roadways and urban transportation, but we don’t get them today because government has a monopoly on their construction, and government can’t construct them efficiently enough to make economic sense.

The Democrats would like to simply deny this reality by saying that we need to put more people to work. Same effect as with healthcare: we’ll be overpaying for something and suffering the results of the overpayment with reduced investment in areas that make more sense.

-Francis Cianfrocca (“blackhedd”)

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Are We Getting Our Money’s Worth for What We Spend on Healthcare? 26 Comments (0 topical, 26 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »

As you point out demand is driven by entitlements.

But supply is tightly regulated by legal mandates and the products on the market are as well. You have a combination of the government, the doctors union (AMA/University certification), and the insurance companies completely controlling the market. The consumer has almost no choice in the product they receive. (Exception cosmetic procedures)

The biggest problem is that the consumer can't even prescribe for their selves. I remember well in the early 90's I needed hydrocortizone cream in a concentration that wasn't available over the counter. My first trip to a walk in facility had a doctor trying to maneuver me into getting laser surgery because he saw my insurance would pay for it. ($300 for the visit down the toilet). I had to another doctor who prescribed my cream another $300 (Still hadn't met my deductible) all to buy a five dollar tube of cream, that I knew I needed and shouldn't have had to deal with these people to get.


"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

Well said Jon.. by GordonTaylor

And Fran, to answer your question, NO, we are not getting a very good bang for our buck.

I rural areas such as I live, one nearly has to have some medical training to ensure that things go as planned. I have the benefit of having been part of a volunteer rescue squad and thus I was trained as an EMT.

My wife had some chest pains, so we went to the local ER. They hooked her up to a monitor, checked vitals etc and walked away [the doctor and nurse]. I continued to watch the monitor and notice that she was throwing PVC's, so I hit the print button and printed out a strip. I tore it off and showed it to the Doctor, he called in a cardiologist and she was helped.

So, I have to say especially in rural areas, the level of care is poor at best, and always has been. Yet, our insurance rates are the same as anyone else in the state.

The consumer has been by Common Cents

The consumer has been removed and replaced with a patient with basically no say to price. When nobody is watching the register, disaster happens (just like mortgage fiasco).

Try to charge a senior citizen an extra 25 cents for a bag of coffee and they will hit you with their cane! That same consumer goes to lunch and brags about his new $20,000 hip replacement paid by insurance.

HSA's are a good attempt to restore consumerism (fosters competition) to health care but Dems don't like them because it takes money and control away from government.

Is the ER the most cost effective place to give routine medical care? I'd think it would be the most expensive.

HSA's

Ask not what I can do for my country, ask what my country can do for me. Washington Elected Elite

There are opportunities for the consumer to say no to price. The doctor is quite willing to discuss the pros and cons of each treatment option--including its cost--if you ask about it.

For example, prescription medicines that are available in generic form can save lots of money, and typically the doctor will prescribe the generic form or the pharmacist will give you the generic as the default.

But we have elderly who spend their last dollar on expensive prescription medicines to stay alive, for which generics are not yet available. If there were cheaper alternatives, they would choose them. But often there are not.

Circa 1990, I had a bleeding ulcer. My blood count was dropping steadily. In the old days, I would have needed risky stomach surgery. The doctor prescribed Prilosec, which at the time was brand new, state of the art, and VERY expensive. And I had to pay for it because my insurer only paid part of the cost of it.

What was I supposed to do? Say "That's too expensive, I would rather just chew some Tums instead?" I spent the money, took the med and got cured.

To stay alive, and keep the diseases at bay in the best possible way, sometimes there is no alternative to the expensive treatment. Fred Thompson had lymphoma. The cost of treating lymphoma is $100,000 a year these days. There are no cheap alternatives. Except death.

And that's what is driving up the cost of health care--we have an insatiable drive to stay alive, no matter how much it costs. We'll pay thousands, tens of thousands, of dollars, to extend life just a few years.

Life is priceless. Hence there is no "market" in which you can trade it off against health care.

No one questions that life is precious, and no one questions that every individual has the right to spend his very last dollar on even an attempt to live for a short amount of additional time.

However, there is scope to question whether society as a whole should make this determination a priori, on everyone's behalf.

It seems to me that this question has already been answered politically in the affirmative, and there is no possibility of returning to free markets in either health care or health insurance.

So far, so good. (Well, not so good, but it is what it is.)

The reason I wrote this piece in the first place is to point out the ramifications of this political and social choice on the economy as a whole.

You've eloquently argued the morality of this choice. But without considering the morality of the issue in the slightest degree, my objective here is to point out that extending life through heroic means, while perfectly unobjectionable as an individual choice, still produces less economic utility than other uses for the same resources.

This is going to have a powerful impact on the material well-being of every American, and it's important to make the choice with our eyes open.

You prove my point. by Common Cents

You prove my point. Medicine is NOT competitve and it is tough for consumer choice right now as you point out. The goal is to put some power back into consumers hands to have millions of watchdogs out there. At least for routine health care.

In my example of trying to charge a senior citizen an extra 25 cents for a bag of coffee, he could go to any number of places for a competitive offer. What would happen to the price of coffee if it was available from one supplier only?

Restrict healthcare to one supplier, the federal government, and will it become more affordable or more expensive?

I can't believe how two separate things are being combined into one in the same by politicians and the media. Universal free health care and health care insurance. They are separate and distinct.

Ask not what I can do for my country, ask what my country can do for me. Washington Elected Elite

Not exactly a luxury good by Arkie Liberal

I'm not sure you can really compare health care to a luxury good. Demand for health care is, I think for normal people, driven by a need (or maybe a perceived need) for services. Well people don't go to the doctor, regardless of how cheap it is, or how much money they have. That is, well people don't want chemotherapy or open heart surgery. Frankly, I doubt people even think about a routine physical as something they want more of.

Of course, that's not to say that if patients had the right incentives, they might not consume as much health care. But the demand for health care is not like the demand for BMWs.

Not his point by KyleH

He is not saying that health care IS a luxury. He is saying that people spend on healthcare in a similar way that some people spend on luxuries.

At a certain point this is understandable. Who wouldn't spend everything they have on an experimental treatment that has only a slight chance of curing a loved one? The problem comes when everyone demands that the government spends this way. It is not just one family, buts lots of families with lots of sick loved ones. Money is spent on a lot of experimental treatments when only one out of a thousand loved ones lives. The other 999 die in spite of the treatment. Now they are dead and the money is wasted. It could have saved a lot more lives spent on simple things like vaccinations or more conventional treatments.

...but the piece was too long as it is.

Let me tell you exactly why I made the comparison.

With luxury goods, affluent consumers are relatively unaffected by the strict value-for-money comparison. Since money is relatively unconstrained for them, they're able to spend a large additional amount in order to get a comparatively small amount of incremental utility. Perhaps surprisingly, it turns out that they're also willing to do so.

Your comment precisely exemplifies this dynamic in regard to health care. To you (and many others), the utility of healthcare is to be valued at an extremely high level, regardless of economics.

Now when you remove the discipline of pricing signals from the purchasing process (which happens in today's third-party payer system, and would happen even more in a universal system), and combine that with a perceived high value for the good, you get the same behavior as with luxury-goods purchases: the S-curve.

With many people, this logic chain actually surfaces as part of a moral computation. You'll hear "it's cruel/inhumane/un-American/evil/whatever for any person to get anything less than the very best healthcare available."

I don't disagree with this, but I think that there is a big difference between the "best" healthcare (defined as an enhanced ability to enjoy life) and the "most expensive" healthcare. That disconnect is where the true source of the problem lies.

Utility of health care by Arkie Liberal

You said "Your comment precisely exemplifies this dynamic in regard to health care. To you (and many others), the utility of healthcare is to be valued at an extremely high level, regardless of economics."

But in fact, the utility of health care varies greatly. Right now, I feel pretty good, and the utility of health care is in fact negative. I should probably go for a physical (and I think my insurance plan allows me 1 free one a year) but I can't really be bothered right now. If I won the lottery, I doubt the first think I would do would go for one of those first class physicals the President gets.

The utility function varies with need. And I agree that it's most likely unnecessary for someone with a typical ankle sprain to get an MRI. Price would surely discourage that, precisely because the utility of the additional treatment is close to zero.

In short, while I think some rationalization of consumption could be encouraged through pricing (I find the nurse practitioner at my workplace to be both helpful and far more convenient that going to the Doctor's office) I am not sure it's a panacea.

You're taking issue with the idea that connecting consumers to the consumed product results in more efficient consumption.

Do you believe that healthcare spending is optimal today? Do you think under a more government-controlled regime that it would become more optimal?

As an aside (you didn't make this point), I know that there are people who are in favor of full government control of the health industry, because they think it will save money. The mechanism for this would be to eliminate the profits that accrue to people who invest in the industry. That of course is irrational because it assumes the government can efficiently allocate healthcare simply by wishing it so. Hundreds of millions of people making individual, self-interested decisions will always operate more efficiently in the aggregate, because (axiomatically) they have far more information.

Efficiency by Arkie Liberal

I think you'd have to be insane to believe that health care spending in the US is allocated efficiently.

And as far as government control of the health industry, to a large extent, with Medicare and Medicaid, we're already there. Add in the 3rd party system, and you add to the inefficiencies. To make matters worse, you have enormous information asymmetries, with doctors knowing a lot more about things than patients, not to mention the lack of pricing disclosure.

I think what needs to happen is that people need to recognize a distinction between health care and health insurance. Health insurance should be reserved for catastrophic losses, things few families could afford to pay for, and I'm enough of a leftist to say that we should socialize that piece of health care. At this level, price isn't going to have much of an impact on demand.

The rest of health care, on the other hand, would probably be responsive to pricing signals. Here, for the most part, people should be on their own, other than the very poorest. I think at this level, pricing mechanisms would work very well in distributing care. Maybe everyone gets a free physical every year, to avoid the catastrophic stuff.

...every American a high-deductible insurance policy for catastrophic conditions and emergencies, and leave everything else untouched?

But more or less that sounds reasonable to me. I wouldn't leave everything else untouched, I'd just more or less keep government out of it. I wouldn't differentiate between medical procedures and prescription drugs.

Not a panacea, by Achance

but a big help; people do all too frequently make stupid decisions even when they know the price. That said, government and the plantiffs' bar are the two biggest causes of high costs and inefficient delivery. The 800 pound gorillas are Medicare/Medicaid and their State analogs and public employee health insurance, in many states the largest single pool. Between the government provided health care and the government paid healthcare for employees, you have the biggest pool in almost every state. In all of these systems, benefit levels and costs are set by political processes, not market processes.

In my former life, I did a lot of negotiating with unions and indirectly with plan administrators and HI companies. The unions were easier! They understood that money that went to HI couldn't go on paychecks. The bureaucrats in plan administration were acutely attuned to the wants and "needs" of lobbyists and legislators (who were acting for lobbyists) and you first had to fight them to do any cost containment. Then there's the game of how the UCR (usual, customary, and reasonable) costs get set, again the province of lobbyists. Add to that a lot of stupid rules by plan administrators who have no real incentive to control costs, e.g., my wife continued working after I retired, but by operation of plan rules, I became the automatic primary notwithstanding the fact that she was still contributing and I'll never contribute another dime. However, that rule allows costs to be shifted to the retiree plan which runs off its own funds whereas active employee HI comes from the operating budget and has to be appropriated every year - 'crat games. Also, since we travel a good bit, we can get some services where they are much, much cheaper, e.g., dental and vision, but rather than comparing the cost against the Alaska UCR, they compare against the local UCR, and it costs me more out of pocket to get the cheaper service; guess which I do now.

And then there's the added costs imposed by the plaintiffs' bar. A huge percentage of medical costs are either defensive medicine or unproductive "end of life" care provided to avoid litigation. Allowing twelve morons with drivers licenses to decide what practices were warranted and whether they were effectively provided is simple insanity, but it makes John Edwards and those of his ilk very rich.

In Vino Veritas

S-Curve by bjf182

"Luxury-goods marketers know about a phenomenon called the “S-curve.” Above a certain price, high-end consumers will willingly spend twice as much money, or even ten times as much, to get a gold wristwatch or luxury condominium that is nowhere near twice or ten times as good as a less-expensive product."

This dovetails nicely into my thoughts on higher education as well - everyone complains about the cost of college but all you see are universities scrambling to build larger stadiums, bigger dorms, extravagant fitness facilities, student centers, etc. The ever expanding scope of "services" offered dictates a higher tuition. Higher education is becoming a luxury good, and is being priced accordingly. My university is a palace compared to the facilities that existed there a mere 14 years ago, and they're now pushing for even more spending on a student activity center claiming that they _need_ one to attract student. I call BS - it's a state school that TURNS STUDENTS AWAY year after year. Time to separate _needs_ from _wants_ and prioritize appropriately.

I've been looking for an excuse to make this point for a very long time.

The large, well-known private schools (and increasingly the state schools as well) have become some of the most successful investors you'll find anywhere in the world. And as their endowments swell with profits from venture capital and private equity limited partnerships, they have become some of the most powerful entities in America.

That's the reason they're undertaking capital projects like libraries, dorms, huge computer networks and football stadiums while every state and local government out there is pinching pennies. Yale has even started partnering up with the city of New Haven (a serious [excrement]-hole if ever there was one), to start replacing some off-campus infrastructure with Yale's endowment dollars.

And how did these universities get so rich? Not because of tuition hikes.

It's because their investments are tax-free.

And that tells you the one simple thing that will solve every economic problem this country has: CUT THE DAMNED CAPITAL-GAINS TAX TO ZERO, ALREADY!

And not only that... by Vladimir

...tuitions increase 8-10% per year, driven by what, the cost of ivy?

Tuitions have nothing to do with the cost of education. They have everything to do with what the market will bear.

It is worth it because people are willing to pay it.

Many of the elite schools have sufficient income off their endowments that they could make the tuition $0 if they wanted.

There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life. - Frank Zappa

The problem with health-care is that the government, in its infinite lack of wisdom, has screwed things up. We need to shead a light on this, less those who favor big government use their own failures and self-created crisis to demand even more power (and create an even bigger crisis to blame on the private sector to claim even more power, &c. &c.).

There is a problem and people know it. People don't want to not have access to health-care, and far toomany are lured by the siren-song of socialist "solutions."

those who want to formalize and extend the government’s control of the industry do not accept that there is an economic tradeoff.

But as a consumer, what am I trading the cost of health care off against? My LIFE?

No matter how expensive the treatments and medicines get, I will NEVER get to the point that I tell the doctor "Forget it, I would rather just die instead."

The reason why the economic laws of supply and demand break down with health care is that one of the items in the transaction--human life--is priceless.

That's not true with any other type of service.

If the cost of repairing my old car gets too high, I can always junk it. Either I'll buy another car, or maybe just use mass transit. But if the cost of "repairing" my body spirals higher, I'm never going to reach the point where I just decide to "junk it." No matter how expensive the treatments get, I am compelled to spend whatever it takes to stay alive.

The only rational economic solution which is based on a laissez-faire economic model and includes this tradeoff, is to euthanize the seriously ill when the cost of caring for them gets too high--like in the movie "Soylent Green."

But as a society, we can't do that because it's immoral. (We do put down stray dogs and cats when we can't find enough families to adopt them, which is why we don't have a health care crisis with the spiraling cost of veterinary medicine. We euthanize the surplus population, something we can't do with humans.)

Thus the laws of capitalism cannot produce an equitable market solution to the health care problem. Because you can't put a price tag on one of the inputs--human life.

You're saying that as a matter of morality, we may neither permit any individual to go without healthcare, nor may we allow anyone to go without the very best care that is available.

And you're quite clear that this moral imperative applies to us as a society.

Are you then prepared to accept whatever it would cost to do this?

You use the emotionally-charged example of euthanasia, and illustrate your point by reference to a dystopic movie.

But if you take a step back and look at Britain and Canada, they have made precisely the choice you recommend. And they have found that costs must indeed be restrained. They do it by paying medical practitioners the very smallest possible amount of money; by not purchasing up-to-date equipment; by not making capital investments in new facilities; and by rationing expensive medical procedures.

The effect is similar to euthanasia in kind, if not in degree.

not everyone's.

No matter how expensive the treatments and medicines get, I will NEVER get to the point that I tell the doctor "Forget it, I would rather just die instead."

I can't tell you how many people tell me that they would rather die. I'm not joking. It shocks the hell out of me when they say it, but there are people who would rather die than pay for what they define as "extraordinary".



Now also found at The Minority Report

rather than face "end of life" treatments that are ultimately futile, prolonging a life of pain and even greater illness and saddling the estate with enormous bills. That's why everyone should have a living will that will keep the Docs from working over the family with the "he deserves every chance" line. It's the doctor equivalent of "innocent until proven broke."

In Vino Veritas

I don't know how to explain it, because shock at the sentiment usually takes over, but it seems to me that these people don't want any care because they would see that as "overly heroic". There are people out there that have such a negative view of their own life that they are willing to throw it away for some things that are curable.



Now also found at The Minority Report

Exceedingly well-explained. by Jeff Emanuel

The Huffington Post of all places had an op-ed yesterday about this topic. Entitled "Universal Health Care Doesn't Mean We're Entitled to All the Health Care in the Universe," its author, Russ Wellen, says the following:

there's one cost-cutting measure that Hillary, Obama, or, for that matter, anyone championing universal health care won't touch. As one of the respondents to the Health Care for America Survey said, "Everybody deserves high quality, affordable health care."


That's an easy sentiment to sign on to to. But don't "high quality" and "affordable" operate at cross-purposes to each other? In other words, measures such as increasing taxes and reducing administrative costs -- such as dismantling the apparatus devoted to denying claims -- may not be enough to shore it up.

In fact, it's time to ask ourselves: Does universal health care really mean that we're entitled to all the health care in the universe?

He goes on to bemoan the 20th/21st-century increase in medical technology, saying that it causes prices to go up and causes doctors to use less knowledge and judgment in favor of simply trusting what the machines tell them, but its willingness to address the the universal vs. quality argument is both welcome and necessary. Too few commentators and pundits will go near that very real conundrum; it's all part of the difference between the Left, who loves the feelgood/emotionally-charged topics and prescriptions, and the Right, which actually looks at the real world, and addresses its prescriptions accordingly -- something which means that we have to do a lot more 'splainin' in order to get folks to set that gut-reaction emotion aside and really engage their brains, so as to understand why our prescriptions are superior.

While it is true that technology is expensive up front, I believe that in the long run technology will actually help reduce costs. That is, at least for that specific procedure.

What is conversely the "problem" (I don't see it as one) is that under the current system we are seeing new technology coming out all the time.

I wish I could flesh out this notion better, but I can't seem to find what I'm looking for to support or reject this notion.



Now also found at The Minority Report

 
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