A few words on Puerto Rico
It matters
By Ben Domenech Posted in 2008 | Barack Obama | Hillary Clinton | Puerto Rico | The Best Democratic Primary EVER — Comments (23) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
First off, a confession: yes, that was my cousin Hillary just thanked from the podium. I trust he is as ashamed of my political preferences as I of him, but we're nice about it and can drink together anyway. This is family, people.
Second off: who were all these self-styled experts about Puerto Rican politics who emerged over the past few weeks? I can't tell you how many glaring factually vacant idiocies I saw in ink form and online over the past few weeks, all because someone has a Puerto Rican friend or vacationed on the island a few times. Look: just because you've been to a place doesn't mean you understand its politics.
The rest of the RS editors always dog on me for linking to this publication, but I still persist in reading it, because I like it (and I like NPR - sue me), which led me to ask: Who the heck is Michael Sean Winters, and why is he so wrong about Puerto Rico? I'd assume a Jesuit to at least know enough to realize that the selection of Presidente over Medalla is not going to decide an election (look, I love PR, but Medalla tastes like it's aged in sweaty socks). But then, he got the King Canute reference wrong too, so whaddaya expect.
In any case, the third and most important point is this: Puerto Rico may not matter at the moment, or in the big scheme of things, but it should to any Democrat. It should because it shows once again that, given the opportunity to ice this nomination for good, Barack Obama cannot deliver. His ground efforts are simply not up to snuff for a general election, and it will need a vast overhaul to compete with a Republican machine that, for all its faults, still is at the top of the game when it comes to microtargeting voters and moving people on election day.
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A few words on Puerto Rico 23 Comments (0 topical, 23 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
So you are either being disingenuous, or are incapable of comprehension.
Either way, I doubt there is any way to enlighten you.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
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Taste it.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
a true fact no one on the left seems to care to address. Of course you can't disparage the democrats too much, they have always been blind to the will of the people.
_____________________________
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.
--Aristotle
Since being annointed the Democrats' nominee on May 6 following his win in North Carolina and belated loss in Indiana, Obama has gotten his clock cleaned in three out of four primaries. 67-26 in West Virginia; 65-30 in Kentucky; 68-32 in Puerto Rico. Has anything like this ever happened before? I know Ronald Reagan won some late primaries in 1976 as did Ted Kennedy in 1980, but did any of them win by such large margins?
South Dakota on Tuesday should be a bellwether. I don't think Hillary has a chance in Montana, but I think she could pull it out in South Dakota. Obama' still heavily favored, but if she scores the upset there, that's a clear repudiation of Obama by the Democratic voters.
but, Kentucky is a weird case. Hillary just pummeled Obama here, showed up and campaigned hard and got a good result for the work. The paper here in Louisville (one of only two counties Obama won) decided it must be that Kentucky is still to racist to accept a black president. Couldn't be that he never campaigned here or showed interest in the things that matter to the vast majority of the state. Nope, it's because he's black!
I think when this is over, the Dems are going to have to think of their race politics again. Right now any losses by a black or female candidate are because of they arent old white guys, which is a safe argument to make if they're going up against a Republican. But the stupidity of the argument is obvious when they line up a black guy vs a white female. Then they have to decide if their own party is more racist or sexist.
He seems to be advising the Obama campaign.
You might get it.
I am beginning to suspect that the "If Obama gets the nomination and Hillary doesn't, I'm voting for McCain" folks just might not be entirely full of hot air.
Prior to this, I figured that they were just saying something to the effect of "I am trying to express my displeasure in the strongest possible way" but, come November, they'd stand in the booth and vote (D) because they wouldn't want to tell their friends in the coffee shop/wine bar/Oprah's Book Club that they voted for McCain.
But I thought about it some more and wondered... what if 2% of them ain't lying? 2 out of 100? 1 out of 50? This election has struck me as being one where it will be won by inches.
Now Obama's supporters are primarily the Dukakis Coalition... and, as far as I understand the Dukakis Coalition, if they say something like "I don't like our candidate", it's followed with "So I'm going to stay the heck home" rather than "I'll vote for the other guy".
In a race where the Republicans are, let's say two points, behind... 49% to 51%... That 2% of Hillary supporters switching turns the election into win, by inches, for McCain.
Now if 2% of the Dukakis coalition for Obama just stays home, then it becomes a win, by inches, for Hillary.
(Yes, I know about the electoral college, I don't have quite enough brain to do an electoral college map yet... give me a couple of months)
Be careful what you wish for.
You might get it.
Man is free at the moment he wishes to be. --Voltaire
Would a Clinton Presidency really be *THAT* bad?
Let's look at the three legs of the stool.
The Fiscons: Well, yeah. Poor, poor fiscons. But at least the Republicans would notice "Hey, we lost the White House, Congress, and Senate after having all three... what happened? Hrm. Maybe we should go back to being nice to the Fiscons..." and that, at least, will make the Fiscons happy.
The Socons: Half of me wants to say that they'd be screaming for blood... but the other half of me wants to say that they are happiest when they are screaming for blood. The Socons would come home to the party and they'd be able to scream about Clinton again. Maybe it's just me, but living in Colorado Springs... it seemed like quite a few Socons really enjoyed, I mean REALLY enjoyed, screaming about Clinton. Much more than they enjoyed defending Bush. Maybe that's a Colorado Springs thing, though, and it's different in the rest of the country.
The Defcons: Hillary has a brain in her head and is smart enough to know that she has to prove herself to a chunk, just a chunk, of the conservative base. The fiscons? Fuggitabowdit. The socons? Giggle. The defcons? Hrm. Hrm. Hrmmmmmmmm.
She saw what happened with Somalia and she watched Black Hawk Down. She saw what happened in the days that followed 9/11. And she saw what happened in Iraq.
I think that she knows that the folks that hate her will always hate her and the folks that love her will always love her and the folks who could be persuaded one way or the other would be persuaded on National Defense grounds... and I think she also knows that she'll gain two votes for being overly aggressive for every one that she loses for being overly aggressive.
An Obama presidency? All three legs of the stool would be upset. A Clinton one? Two would be upset and one would understand that you can't always get what you want but... some things have to be put on the back burner and the other two legs don't always understand that.
Or so it seems from here.
Man is free at the moment he wishes to be. --Voltaire
I would say that as a group they are just tired of getting none of what they want. (Taxcuts aren't for them, everybody wants them);
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
They may not cast for McCain, but what if they don;t cast at all? Therein lies the more likely outcome.
Then factor the "I won;t ever vote for a black man" vote, and there is a lot of that in the 50-80 year old block and now instead of a single digit win for McCain it becomes a 20 point loss for Obama.
_____________________________
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.
--Aristotle
The Socons: Half of me wants to say that they'd be screaming for blood... but the other half of me wants to say that they are happiest when they are screaming for blood. The Socons would come home to the party and they'd be able to scream about Clinton again.
In fact, that's exactly what James Dobson told Fox News earlier this year:
He said that from his point of view, it's better if Hillary wins than if McCain wins. A Hillary in the White House would help energize his movement. But a McCain in the White House, who is also the GOP standard-bearer, will freeze Dobson out of GOP politics. He actually said that.
Or, to paraphrase David Frum: Dobson would rather keep control of a party that loses, than lose control of a party that wins.
Dobson needs to get back to counseling families and get out of politics. Whenever he opens his mouth on an issue it energizes the left like little else. Their reaction to him makes ours to Rev Wright look tame. Second he is so extreme and narrow in his views he alienates parts of our party continually.(Yes there are conservative republicans that find the guy creepy)
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
It's amazing how the DNC and Howard Dean could make such a mockery of this. Obama is a fraud! http://www.hellnobama.com
...don't have a circa-1988 crappy website.
The most disturbing part of the Puerto Rico is the covert racism exhibited by Hillary's campaign. In discussing the win in PR, Terry McAuliffe talked about how getting the Hispanic votes in places like New Mexico, Texas, and Nevad.
You know - because Caribbean based Latinos are EXACTLY the same in their culture and voting habits as the mostly Mexican Hispanic population of the Western US!
This from the same party that suggested that Obama ingratiate himself to the Cubans by eating a burrito.
Well Hillary DID win Latinos in Nevada, California, Texas etc fairly convincingly. The question was whether the voting patterns already established among Hispanics in the southwest would translate to Puerto Rico, and they did.
"with a Republican machine that, for all its faults, still is at the top of the game when it comes to micro targeting voters and moving people on election day."
Yeah, it worked so well last time.
We were faced with a unique set of problems in 2006, which weren't able to be addressed by micro-targeting and GOTV. Fortunately, we have an entirely new unique set of problems this time around.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
gave me headaches whenever I drank it. Or maybe it was the Wisin y Yandel pumpingEVERYWHERE.
Yeah, I get that the first graf is a riff on alleged Appalachian preferences.
I'm just wondering why you would support her now, given the previous hay made over she and her husband being utterly corrupt serial killers.