More Superdelegate Math
By Neil Stevens Posted in Democrats | Rooting For Injuries | superdelegates | The Best Democratic Primary EVER | The Great Netroots Betrayal — Comments (5) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
As the unpledged Party Leader and Elected Official delegates to the Democratic National Convention weigh their solemn duty to decide who will be the 2008 Democratic Presidential nominee, arguably their chief job is to choose the candidate who is best equipped to win. No Democrat who has to run on the ballot (most PLEOs are elected officials) has a need to see another George McGovern.
So following is the kind of math the delegates are most likely looking at as the Democratic nomination process wears on:
Read on...
Here is a table of the ten closest states in the 2004 Presidential election, their winners in the 2008 Democratic process, and the electoral votes carried by the states.
| State | 2004 | 2008 | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | Kerry +0.38% | Obama +18% | 10 |
| Iowa | Bush +0.67% | Obama +8% | 7 |
| New Mexico | Bush +0.79% | Clinton +1.14% | 5 |
| New Hampshire | Kerry +1.37% | Clinton +2.64% | 4 |
| Ohio | Bush +2.11% | Clinton +10% | 20 |
| Pennsylvania | Kerry +2.5% | (Rasmussen) Clinton +10 | 21 |
| Nevada | Bush +2.59% | Clinton +5% | 5 |
| Michigan | Kerry +3.42% | Clinton +15% | 17 |
| Minnesota | Kerry +3.48% | Obama +25% | 9 |
| Oregon | Kerry +4.16% | 7 | |
| Colorado | Bush +4.67% | Obama +24% | 9 |
Quite a mixed bag of results. Poor superdelegates. There are more ways to grapple with this list than hands to weigh them in:
- Obama has taken four to Clinton's four to five (depending on how you count Michigan), with Pennsylvania likely her way, too. Point for Clinton.
- Obama has taken the two closest states, and has won states with the largest margins. Points for Obama.
- The close states won or will be won by Clinton add up to 72 (or 55, depending on Michigan) EVs to 35 for Obama. 20 EVs are quite a lot when your party starts behind. Point for Clinton.
I believe any smart superdelegate has to ignore the emotional appeals of the supporters of each candidate. The Democratic Party, for better or for worse, has chosen to use a nomination process less responsive to the popular will than even the US does in the general election, between the randomness of the 'proportional' district results in which winning some districts by a point wins you more delegates and winning others by a point will not, and the large number of superdelegates themselves who are guaranteed to have the power to choose the winner in any close race such as this one, due to the mathematics of requiring a majority on the floor.
The system is what it is, and if one believes the party is the only hope for America, the party has to win. Do delegates or popular votes in the primaries matter, or do electoral votes for November matter? I think the answer is clear, and that is why the superdelegates yet refuse to swing the election for Barack Obama. They want Clinton, and no amount of Netroots whining will change that.
« Corrupt Democrat Watch, July 10 Edition, Part One — Comments (20) | Hey, folks who donate to a D campaign should be OK with this kind of thing, shouldn't they? — Comments (13) »
More Superdelegate Math 5 Comments (0 topical, 5 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
The math is probably much more personal. Take, for example, Heath Schuler. I doubt he really cares who scored the win in Wisconsin or Iowa. He may not even care who wins the NC primary. But he certainly does care about who is likely to run stronger in NC-11. He wants to keep his job, and he knows that, as a freshman member in what should be a GOP-leaning district, he can't afford short (or no) coattails. A weak candidate at the top could lead to a sufficient win for McCain in NC-11 that Schuler's opponent picks up a bunch of votes and Schuler may be out of a job himself. One thing about the Critters - they're usually looking out for #1.
Expect many superdelegates, especially those House members who are a) freshman and/or b) in marginal or Republican districts, to be looking at their own personal welfare before they concern themselves with the will of the people or the good of the Party. Whichever candidate is more likely to increase their own vote totals is the horse to pick.
We can't do that, now can we? Then we'd have to start wondering just why things have unfolded as they have. Heh.
HTML Help for Red Staters
"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
The offer of that nice ambassador's residence is doesn't look so great if a) you don't think they're going to be there to give you it come next Jan and b) it seems like you're not the only one whose wife is measuring it for new curtains.
I hope and pray that Gore is not named by superdelegates as the Dem. nominee. That would spell doom for the GOP all the way down the ballot. This scenario could be the only way the Dems. win this presidential election.
(I have posted this sentiment on Kos many times.)