Our Word For The Day Is . . .
By Pejman Yousefzadeh Posted in Al Qaeda | terrorism | War — Comments (5) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
One of Al Qaeda's senior theologians is calling on his followers to end their military jihad and saying the attacks of September 11, 2001, were a "catastrophe for all Muslims."
In a serialized manifesto written from prison in Egypt, Sayyed Imam al-Sharif is blasting Osama bin Laden for deceiving the Taliban leader, Mullah Omar, and for insulting the Prophet Muhammad by comparing the September 11 attacks to the early raids of the Ansar warriors. The lapsed jihadist even calls for the formation of a special Islamic court to try Osama bin Laden and his old comrade Ayman al-Zawahri.
The disclosures from Mr. Sharif, also known as Dr. Fadl and Abd al-Qadir ibn Abd al-Aziz, have already opened a rift at the highest levels of Al Qaeda. The group's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, a former associate of the defecting theologian in Egypt, personally mocked him last month in a video, remarking that he was unaware Egyptian prisons had fax machines. Meanwhile, leading Western analysts are saying the defection of Mr. Sharif indicates the beginning of the end for Al Qaeda.
"Beginning of the end," eh? Let's hope so. At the very least, this news points the way to exploit various fissures that might exist in the organization. I doubt that Sharif is any kind of silver bullet and there are people who are casting doubts on his comments by claiming that they are the result of torture and therefore, not genuine. But in this case, perception may outstrip reality and if the perception that al Qaeda is undergoing some kind of theological civil war spreads, the organization and the message that it spreads may well lose appeal. People don't like backing losers and terrorist organizations that are riven with deep and serious disagreements look like losers to just about anyone.
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Dr. Fadl is assassinated in prison and AQ tries a large operation. He's now a loose end that can and will be tied up. The only other possiblity is that he sees the light and claims that it was torture or that the CIA/Zionist fabracated the letter.
Hopefully this is a sign of a fissure, but I have my doubts.
in this case, perception may outstrip reality and if the perception that al Qaeda is undergoing some kind of theological civil war spreads, the organization and the message that it spreads may well lose appeal. People don't like backing losers and terrorist organizations that are riven with deep and serious disagreements look like losers to just about anyone.
Emphasis added.
Grant, in a note to Lincoln, written while pursuing Lee to Appomattox: "If the thing is pressed, I think Lee will surrender."
Lincoln, in reply: "Let the thing be pressed."
Arabs may be desperate, but they're not stupid. Fewer and fewer of them will answer the call to martyrdom if they perceive those making the call to be idiots and incompetents.
I hope our Information Operations (IO) people at Langley and the Pentagon are reading and heeding this post. Let the thing be pressed.
"Who will stand/On either hand/And guard this bridge with me?" (Macaulay)
Contrarianistic's Rule No. 1: "Sample of One" - Never attempt to extrapolate from a single data point.
al-Zawahri's comment that he was unaware that Egyptian prisons had fax machines appears to be an attempt to challenge the authenticity of the 'manifesto'. It's also a message that al-Sharif has no real voice in al-Qaeda. Being in prision and under the control of pro-Western forces means al-Sharif has little or no ability to campaign for his view of things. In this, al-Zawahri is right.
While we obviously want to believe we've beaten this enemy, don't. When you see some number of active and free al-Qaeda members esposing these beliefs, you can begin to consider the possibility of a split.
Contrarianistic's Rule No. 2: "Psych!" Until the data is overwhelming, always assume YOU are the target of the psych-op.
...saying go, "one swallow does not a summer make"?
There's not a lot of difference between the determination of the Islamofascist warrior and that of the Japanese soldier in WWII. One notable quote from the narration of a 1953 WWII documentary went "The Japanese died! the Japanese did not surrender!" That was borne out by the death toll on the defenders of Iwo Jima, 20,800 out of 21,000.
One imprisoned Muslim scholar conceding defeat is a long way from a victory as sweeping as the one achieved over the Japanese, which is what it will take to bring peace to this world.
"In War;Resolution: In Defeat;Defiance:" Our grandparents knew instinctively what it took to win a war. In Vietnam, with people like Robert McNamara instead, a bona fide pacifist in charge of the Department of Defense, we tried substituting the last parts of Churchills admonition, "magnanimity' and 'good will', instead of 'resolution' and without the 'victory' and 'peace'.
I have watched very closely this enemy of ours since 9-11 and I don't see the madness ending any time soon.
I probably just ignored the Middle East in the 70's, 80' and 90's as did obviously a lot of people. This Jihad did not start on 9-11 and it will not end with a break in the ideology of one person.
In too many of the Middle Eastern countries the children are raised on hatred of Jews and the West and anyone who has raised children know the basis for their lives begin in childhood.
This has been and will continue to be a multi decade war. I wish it were not so and wish that there was someone to sign a treaty and end this war but there is not. I think the recent discovery of the torture chamber in Iraq should tell us all we need to know of this enemy. This enemy is more cruel and inhuman than any we have faced, in my opinion.
Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion