how to win
Posted at 11:20am on May 8, 2008 How McCain Can Win
Win The Argument
By Martin A. Knight
Victor David Hanson makes a good point here about the upcoming Presidential election; John McCain cannot beat Barack Obama by trying to blur the differences between himself and the likely Democratic nominee in a bid to win over the mushy middle.
... conservatives should reach out with conservative principles better framed and presented, rather than change the message for the perceived advantage of the hour.
What the Republicans need is not an abandonment of conservative principles, but a smarter, more articulate defense of even more conservativism, not less.
My shorter interpretation of what VDH is saying we need is this; BETTER MARKETING.
The fact is Conservative turnout in 2006 was virtually unchanged from 2004 in 2006 so blaming our booting from majority status on the 1-2% of the base that sat on their hands ON 11/7/2006 is being willfully blind. We lost because we lost swing voters (the "center") in massive numbers (70D-30R, if I recall correctly) from an essentially even 50D-50R split in the two years from 2004 to 2006. And from all indications, we still have a long way to go before we can claw our way back to narrowing it to 60D-40R later this fall.
The first step to doing that, over the long and short term, is recognizing the fact that swing voters are primarily won through the marketing, rhetoric, stagecraft, image management, Press coverage, etc. The presentation and the public persona of the candidate (including the baggage of the popular perception of the candidate's party) matters a lot more with the average "middle" voter than his/her policy positions.
It's not exactly the most flattering picture of the part of the electorate that generally gets to decide who ends up giving the concession (or in the case of Democrats - filing suit in the nearest friendly Court) or victory speech on Election Day, but there it is.
The thing to remember though, is that this is no sign of stupidity, it's a sign of disinterest.
Amongst these people are numbered some of America's smartest men and women in every field of endeavor. They are registered as Republicans, Democrats as well as Independents - what they generally have in common is that they just do not actively think of or pay anything beyond passive attention to politics until maybe a week or two before Election Day. Then everything they've absorbed over the whole cycle combines with what they're hearing at the moment - from their own subjective gut reactions to poll reports telling them who their neighbors are voting for to the disbelieving arch of the reporter's eyebrow to October Surprises - and then they go out and vote.
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